The role of disturbance in invasive plant establishment in a changing climate: insights from a drought experiment

Abstract Climate change and disturbance are two major factors affecting the establishment of invasive species, yet few studies to date have assessed individual interactive effects these in a common setting. Disturbance has often been found facilitate invading while climate may affect them positively or negatively through altering abiotic conditions, indirectly by modifying species interactions. In full-factorial field experiment semiarid temperate grassland Central Hungary, we studied drought (40% rain exclusion throughout year) soil on emergence, survival aboveground biomass four plant that represent different life forms concern region at broader scale. We added seeds Ambrosia artemisiifolia (annual forb), Cenchrus incertus grass), Asclepias syriaca (perennial forb) Ailanthus altissima (deciduous tree) non-drought plots with without disturbance. germinated poorly irrespective treatments. facilitated suppressed seedling emergence other three species. was more sensitive disturbance, responsive drought. achieved substantial disturbed only, as strongly its even presence Seedling late-season were affected but unaffected drought, no survived until late summer. Our results highlight both considerably impact plants, potential effects, responses greatly differ among stages. Overall, our findings this study suggest although establishment, drier not suppress eliminate if is present. They also importance including assessing invasions.